Musings on the advancement of Technology.

 

Technology is advancing rapidly. There are myriad areas where the rate of change is on the upswing enabled by many factors – better access to information, focus, market dynamics and intense pressure to stay ahead of the curve. Where wireless is concerned multiple actors- governments, regulators, OEMs and providers are looking at the next developments and how to prepare and tackle for it. In areas where the reach of technology is still un served or some previous versions of technologies are available, the need is to upgrade and possibly replace some existing ones provided the monies and revenues justify the same.

In this post, I try to capture some of the developments taking place in the wireless space.

·         5G is an area where the interest seems to be extending beyond seminars and discussions over coffee to trials on the ground.  Although standards are not yet frozen completely with the International Telecommunication Union setting 2020 as the target date, the 3^rd Generation Partnership Project the body driving WCDMA and LTE is working on it quite a bit. Operators in Japan and the US are pushing for early freezing of 5G specifications. Trials are ongoing and even in countries where 4G is still not rolled out across the length and breadth, 5G is in favor with vendors and operators signing on the dotted lines to work in this emerging area. Breakthroughs in the Radio area in terms of speed, latency and demos of functionalities like network slicing keep pouring in. Data savvy areas like the East Asia are leading the pack.

·         Older generations of mobile technologies are slowly fading away. Not that these were expected to last for ages. 2G is already being given the burial in Japan with the last rites been done with. How about countries like India? It looks like 2G will still be there for some more time. Why is it so? Mainly because 2G nodes were still getting installed and integrated as recently as in the past years. One major reason is the prevalence of a large chunk of “feature” phones which are user friendly to the users who primarily rely on voice. These phones do not burn that much of hole in the pocket in buying a new one either. The falling price of smart phones and the transition to data will help in the acceleration of replacement of older technologies.

·         Talking of newer technologies and smart phones, are the applications there? What will users get to do with enabling technologies and devices? Will it only be movies, sports clippings, YouTube and WhatsApp content? Or will we see increased use of Internet of Things both for industrial and consumer use? Finding the right type of application, content and use cases will be important otherwise justification for having newer generations of technologies in terms of speed, latencies, power may not be the only allure to justify huge investments. A Hobson’s choice for providers – Build the systems for fast and newer applications first or get the applications and use cases and then decide on how much bigger and wider the highways need to be built? Will one lead to the other?  

·         Different standards in the technology game are cozying up to each other. We have seen Wi-Fi from the stables of the IEEE family working as a standalone functionality in PCs, laptops and mobiles to connect to the net.  ETSI followed by 3GPP started off with developing GSM and WCDMA with their own set of specifications and there was not so much of talking with each other. Now standards emanating from different standard forums are moving towards integration and the trend is increasing. A common core network can now handle both WCDMA/ LTE and Wi-Fi. Again, IMS started by TISPAN for fixed-line for voice functionality is now integrated with 3GPP offerings to offer VoLTE or Voice over LTE for mobile users.

·         CDMA, 3G, LTE networks are offered by operators to serve end customers and thereby earning revenues based on usage. These are commercial networks.  Captive networks to a certain extent are present which use these technologies to serve their in house users. These can be in the defense sector or used by large scale enterprises.  With IOT and Smart cities and newer types of users, will we see different types of services in wireless and mobility space to serve different hues of customers?  As an instance, a utility company may stretch out to offer IOT services to enterprises willing to use IOT specific networks considering that they already have the assets in place like an oil pipeline, or cables and wires carrying information from one substation or station to another? What would the rules and regulations be? We are now venturing out into newer vistas and rules will need to re-written.

·         One interesting area to watch out for is the interplay between services offered in the licensed and unlicensed bands of the spectrum. 3GPP technologies -GSM, CDMA, WCDMA, LTE have been designed to use licensed spectrum while Wi-Fi, DECT and others of that category uses the unlicensed part of the spectrum. This is how devices and equipment have been made and used. Developments are taking place in multiple areas- one free more spectrum in newer bands to cater for existing 3G & 4G and upcoming 5G space and how to use the unlicensed frequencies for mainstream 3GPP technologies. Using unlicensed bands will give flexibility to service providers. The ISM band and more generally 2.4 Ghz and 5 Ghz bands are normally unlicensed.  The protagonists who pay for licenses to the government would not like to see similar services offered in non-licensed bands by other providers. Especially so if they are not being subject to the same rules as framed by the government and regulators.  This has to do not with technology per se but more to do with policies and regulations and does affect the way services are availed by the end user.

 
Would love to hear comments, criticisms and feedback.

 

Artificial Intelligence, Nano technology, Industry 4.0 and 5G. What countries need to do?.

Oxford dictionary defines technology as “application of scientific knowledge for practical purposes”. New technologies are what they are supposed to bring- make things more efficient, increase productivity, reduce cost and make lives better.  Artificial intelligence is spoken as bringing human intelligence to robots and machines so that they can think like humans and do tasks that only humans can do today.

Comments by technology stalwarts and visionaries like Elon Musk on the threat of AI being more than what North Korea with its ICBMs appears to the US  or being an” existential threat” to mankind has other big supporters who view AI with similar lenses. British physicist, Stephen Hawking warns of AI as being a threat to mankind and talks of either “the best of worst thing” for human beings. The Luddite forces have been generally trade unions so far who used to oppose technology for fear of job losses but these technology and science visionaries speaking of the dangers take us to a different plane of thinking.

Artificial intelligence, Internet of things, 5G, Nano technology, Industry 4.0 are buzzwords that are increasingly being seen in the online portals, newspapers, seminars and TV talk shows on technology. Some technology enthusiasts forward updates related to these aspects on sites like LinkedIn and WhatsApp.  Are these areas going to be game changers for societies and countries in coming times? Or is it all hype created by interested parties and suppliers trying to further enhance and create the ground for more business opportunities and show that they are at the fore front of technology? Or is it both?
Are governments across the industrialized and developing world seeing potential in these areas? A sample of the advanced countries show that some of them are taking it seriously. 

The US has come up with two presidential committee reports in 2016 on the impact of Artificial Intelligence. The US government views AI as essential to maintain its leadership position. The studies recommend the US to continue research on AI, maintain focus and develop the technology while taking cognizance of changes that would come in the policy, regulatory and legal areas.  The need to study the fallout on society and employment due to the impact of automation also needs attention. The European Union has a program called Horizon 2.0 with funding for areas like cloud computing, 5G, AI and Nano technology. Interestingly, the European parliament has recently called for robots to be classified as “electronic persons”. EU has however indicated that they do not currently envisage any changes in legislation or laws to deal with AI.

The three Asian economies taking avid interest are China, Japan and South Korea. China for instance has made innovation, AI and related areas as part of their 5-year plans and has set the vision of becoming a global innovation Centre of AI by 2030. China has identified AI as being crucial to its development and wellbeing and has set specific targets to be achieved. Japan is talking of “Society 5.0” in formulating its science and technology plans for the country. The government has setup an advisory board to study the impact and measures to be undertaken to foster the development of AI and recommend changes to be made on ethical, legal, education and the social sectors. Meanwhile, the South Korea government too is giving focus on ICBM (IOT, Cloud Computing, Big data analysis and mobile communication) for the country to maintain its economic and social wellbeing.

What about the developing countries? India has set up taken up specific programs and schemes like Digital India, Skill up India, Smart Cities and Make in India to take India ahead on the journey of progress. However, the government has so far not set up any inter-ministerial study to prepare the technological changes and leverage the potential benefits or study the impact on employment, education and society at large. Other developing countries are on similar lines. Many talk of the importance of IT and increase of broadband and internet to the masses. This is no doubt required and in a future of information and knowledge based societies, the emerging areas need to be studied not only in the universities and engineering institutes but also in the policy and regulatory forums.  With increasing automation and AI, there is apprehension that low skilled jobs will be severely impacted. Rising unemployment will lead to social unrest and impact the economy of a country. This will be true for other developing countries too.  It is time that countries plan their long-term strategies on handling high technology and their fallouts. If areas like AI, IOT, Nano technology and broadband are going to impact society then we cannot afford to be late.

Evolution of Voice as a Service

In the era of “data” hogging the limelight, in this post I dwell on “voice” and where we stand now on voice as a service. How do we define “Voice”? Voice as spoken by human beings is the ability to hear the words spoken by another and possibly carry on a conversation. A normal human voice falls in the frequency range of 80-250 Hz compared to the frequencies allotted for mobile communications which typically lie in the range of 700 - 2500 MHz in today’s spectrum allocations. The frequency range of human voice is about 1000,000 times lower in magnitude compared to commercial mobile spectrum.

www.guinnessworldrecords.com informs that the male voice normally goes to 180 meters in still air. For human voice to be spoken and transmitted over a distance (Here I am not talking about mike amplifiers used to address crowds) it can be done through the medium of telecom networks. The first and traditional way is the POTS phone which has a fixed wire or cable from the telephone exchange terminating in the device and it can also be done by using a mobile network. There are other ways like satellite phones or trunk radios but let me stick to voice service that an ordinary user can avail. This voice carried over any network has to have the unique property of being in “real time” so that the end user can comprehend what the other side is saying and carry out a meaningful conversation.

Voice availed through the POTs phones given by the Fixed Line service providers has evolved not only in the way the service is availed by the end user but also in the background technology. We have a fixed phone set at home or office and dial the number we need to dial, hear a ring back tone and when the other side picks up, the end to end circuit gets established enabling the users at both ends to have voice communication. Behind this simple service is an array of equipment, the central of which is the Telephone Exchange and the access side. Taking an analogy with mobile telecom systems, there is an access network side consisting of the physical media laid from the telephone exchange to the end user premises.  The voice is carried over DSL lines where voice and data can be conveyed together over digital lines on copper. Optical fibers are also being increasingly used for the last mile combining data and voice. Devices such as Splitters/IAD/MSAN is used at the customer end premises to extract the voice services and terminate in a fixed line device or telephone set. As such, the media for connecting the end user which initially had only copper cables has now got two options - copper and optical fibers. The other part - the Exchange over time has also seen technological upgrades from analog to digital systems. Even within the digital space it has changed from one version to upgraded avatars known as NGN.  ITU -T defines NGN as one “where service-related functions are independent of the underlying transport-related technologies”. Although improvements have taken place over the years in terms of the digital switching platform, there is no concrete terminology used such as 2G, 3G or 4G as used in mobile networks. But user experience has got enhanced. From the initial days when only plain basic voice was there, now the user can have add-on services like Call Forwarding and Wake-up call facilities.

Even electronic and digital systems have a shelf life no matter how advanced they might be. The service providers will no doubt try to extract the maximum utility from the installed systems and as operational costs increase in terms of repair, support, power consumption and area the equipment takes up, they need to look at technological upgrades to keep the services running.  Service providers will also need to   give increased value to the voice users. This leads to procuring newer and advanced switches and the shift from one hardware and software version to another. In current deployments Internet Multimedia Sub-Systems (IMS) have come in for the core or “exchange” end for PSTN. IMS supports SIP (IP) and the POTS phone gets transformed to IP end points. These IP end points may be SIP Voice phone, SIP Video phone or SIP Clients offering an array of services such as Call Conferencing, Call waiting, Call Forwarding among others using IP as the underlying layer.

Looking at the evolution of voice in a Mobile network, let us look at the two aspects Access and Core as we did in the case of the Fixed phones above. In the access part which the Radio part or “last mile” it is 2G, 3G or 4G to the end user who uses a mobile handset to avail the voice services. For 2G and 3G, the voice is carried over the airwaves through a Circuit switched (CS) network which connects to the mobile Network of another service provider (PLMN) or PSTN network. The 2G and 3G networks use the MSC. an equivalent of the PSTN Exchange to switch calls in different sides. Similar to the PSTN network, an end to end circuit is established from the end user mobile handset through the Radio access and Core Network onwards to the end user on the other side. This circuit is maintained till such time the call is ongoing. From the Circuit Switched network, it has evolved to Packet switched networks where there is now no dedicated path to carry voice. Voice is now carried as data packets. This is the way IP packets flow when we send across emails and other data from one laptop or desktop across cities and countries.

Voice in this new form of data packets is possible through two ways. One through VOIP which has what we have through the use of applications like Skype, WhatsApp voice and the like. These Apps for voice are free in the sense that these apps do not charge from the end users. These apps use the underlying network infrastructure of the mobile networks as an overlay layer. The app providers have their own setup consisting of servers to route the calls, maintain databases and give other value added services through the net. Although voice is apparently free, add on services may be charged. In this scenario, the network service providers who have 2G, 3G and 4G networks do not have much control and in these days of “Net Neutrality” they can ill afford to block or throttle these applications. The other approach which mobile service providers feel they can have more control over a traditional service such as Voice is to have an IMS architecture. This IMS architecture is the same one used for Fixed line voice as we saw above as IMS is agnostic to the underlying access layer whether it is Copper, Optical or 4G. But service providers need to give clear benefit to entice the user to avail voice service given by them. Using a IMS setup gives them the leverage to do so and the benefits in this game of having IMS can be giving better Quality of Service, common look and feel and avoiding the hassles of ensuring that both the callers (caller party and called party) having to use the same application. In current setup, a Skype user can only call another Skype user and not a WhatsApp user. This problem is circumvented by using IMS Voice. For a service provider deploying LTE radio access, deploying IMS network becomes mandatory as LTE by design cannot be connected to a circuit switch (Core) network like the previous generations of 2G and 3G radio to deliver voice services. Voice carried over LTE is known as Voice over LTE (VoLTE). Once a service provider introduces IMS in its network, it can also use it to give voice services over Wi-Fi (VoWiFi) or give Video services.

VOIP or Voice over IP (or Internet) allows a caller to initiate calls from his or her PC, laptop, tablet or mobile device using IP. A user making a voice call to another PC user can bypass the traditional PSTN or PLMN networks.  Depending on local policies and regulations, voice calls from VOIP to PSTN or Mobile numbers and vice versa are allowed or curtailed.

What about the actual conversion of analogue speech as we speak to digital format? Codecs are used for conversion of voice (analogue) to digital format for transmission and re-conversion back to analogue for speech at the other end. Improvements have also taken place in the quality of voice carried over telecom systems over time. For GSM (2G) it started with Full rate (FR) codecs and then progressively seen half rate (HR) codecs for pumping more information, Enhanced Full rate (EFR) codecs reducing errors leading to Adaptive Multi rate (AMR) and Wideband AMR (AMR-WB) codecs in deployments. AMR-WB for instance provides for more bandwidth than conventional 3.1 kHz and has other features for better speech quality and noise reduction.

So where do we stand on voice services in the current scenario? I take the case of India again.

• ·    Incumbent operators have got circuit switch networks that cater to 2G and 3G radio networks which are widely deployed compared to LTE. Using VoLTE presents a challenge as full and seamless LTE coverage is not there across the country currently. Having full LTE coverage will take time although service providers are increasing its coverage. In this scenario, the experience of using VoLTE in patchy LTE radio coverage areas leaves the user experience wanting.
• ·       So what do existing operators who are having LTE radio network as well as 2G and 3G network do? The mechanism of CSFB (Circuit Switch Fall Back) for voice services is a way out. This means that while in the LTE radio coverage area, data services are carried by LTE radio network while any voice service to be availed by a user, the network automatically selects the Circuit Switch Network. This fallback for voice makes sense when the service provider has a robust 2G and 3G network which is true for most such operators in India. As LTE coverage increases and expands, SRVCC can be resorted to. This mechanism uses the IMS Core for voice calls in the LTE radio network and utilizes the existing circuit core for voice calls when the user moves to a 3G or 2G radio coverage area. The difference with CSFB is that in SRVCC, the Call control is retained by the IMS Core. SRVCC is not seen in Indian networks although operators have tested the solution in their networks. CSFB remains in vogue.
• ·      Having a LTE capable handset does not always mean having a handset supporting VoLTE at the same time. It seemed as if the two aspects are separate although VoLTE runs on IMS Core with LTE radio technology in the access. As recently as a year back, there were few handsets supporting VoLTE. But Handset support for VoLTE is increasingly seen across multiple handset manufacturers and the price of these handsets are getting affordable.
• ·       To maintain their technological lead and ensure they are not lagging in the deployment of newer services, providers need to keep abreast of their peers. In the case of VoLTE too, this seems to be in the case along with the inherent need to upgrade the networks and keep pace with the developments in the market.
• ·      The Telecom Regulator (TRAI) regularly publishes the Network Quality performance indicators and considering the technological and market changes, indicators would warrant review as subscriber ramp up takes place in the IP side of voice compared to Circuit Switched voice. 
• ·         Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) is not much of a story in India, as of now. Service providers in India are deploying IMS solutions in their Fixed line and Mobile services but the use of one single IMS core is not visible although IMS is access agnostic. Possibly the separation is maintained because of administrative and operational reasons and not due to technological limitations.
• ·      Voice calls from PSTN or Mobile numbers to Voice over IP (VOIP) users and vice versa are not allowed under current policy/regulations. However, PC to PC or PC to International PSTN/PLMN numbers are allowed. No separate numbering scheme exists to identify VOIP users like a PSTN or Mobile number. The regulator (TRAI) had initially proposed allowing such calls and it has issued a consultation paper (2016) on the issue to solicit views of different stakeholders but as things stand, the current policy does not allow calls from VOIP users to users of fixed line and mobile numbers.
• ·     Service providers are giving affordable tariff plans which offer free unlimited local and STD voice calls bundled with data. Voice which was charged per minute or per second or multiples of the same is seeing a changeover. In current scenario, either it is not charged separately (at least in some plans) or charged at low rates.

The genesis of telecom which had voice as its core service is seeing a change and voice is now only one in the bouquet of services provided by the service providers The entry of VOIP and Reliance Jio as a provider which has no 2G and 3G networks but launching LTE networks is changing the market as far as “voice” as a service is offered. From the traditional circuit switched voice where a dedicated path is established to packet switching of calls, voice is on the path of using IP as the underlying layer, whether we term it as a IMS voice or VOIP call. 

Telephony end user hopes and expectations for this year

As 2017 starts, I try to capture my thoughts and hopes as a consumer of telephony services.   There is a plethora of services in offer by different service providers. But what do I expect as an end user of a service which is now seemingly an un-detachable part of my life?  The mobile has become so much a pervasive part of me not only because I am immersed in the industry but also to do with the fact that it has become a basic necessity in today’s world. Here are 10 areas that I as a user hopes gets better in this year.

1.       No buffering and good speeds available in mobiles for data sessions in home, in the market place and the roads and highways. Although voice network is extensive in the country but as far as data is concerned, issues still persist firstly on coverage and secondly on the quality of the data sessions.

2.       Security and privacy of data for whatever is uploaded, shared or downloaded among friends, colleagues and acquaintances. Currently an average user does not know whether his or her data is safe or has fallen prey to someone’s prying eyes. To a naïve user it may never cross his mind that his personal details are available to others till he or she becomes a victim of some fraud.

3.       Healthy competition between service providers so that the consumer gets a rich choice of service bouquet and affordability for mobile telephony services.

4.   Tariffs remain transparent and affordable. This is applicable for both mobile as well as fixed services. For fixed broadband tariffs, wherever competition is not there, tariffs on offer can vary a lot. If we take the example of Delhi, where there are multiple service provider choices, one can get unlimited broadband plans @1000 (US$ 15) rupees approximately per month, while in Gurgaon an adjacent city and logically a part of Delhi the range can go to around 1500 rupees (US$ 22) due to the fact that in many areas there is only one or two providers and the service provider tries to exploit the monopoly situation. This situation is more so when one moves beyond the major cities and towns.

5.       Easy to use and maneuver portals of Service Providers. If one goes to any service provider’s portal, the number of schemes that are displayed creates more confusion than clarity of what the user wants.  Time for some simplification!

6.       Regulator plays a more active role in preventing unwanted marketing calls and SMSs from banks, insurance companies and real estate agencies in ungodly times and days. The regulator monitors the network quality, subscriber data and the like but it seems that the end consumer experiences are not captured in a way it should be. It would be unrealistic to expect the regulator to get to the individual consumer but some process through which it can gauge the user experiences along with the network performance would help.

7.       Resolving financial transaction issues - For financial transactions done through the mobile, there are a number of players in action in the chain- starting with the mobile operator, the app, the payment gateway and the bank. The situation gets further complicated when the user is traveling and carries out a failed transaction in a roaming network. In case of a dispute, two things need to be addressed. First who will resolve the dispute and second how much time will the complaint get resolved? Time is the essence. 

8.       Battery life of the mobile phone remains enough to last for the whole day to do voice calls and data sessions without looking for a recharge point or battery bank to carry along. 

9.       App options get simplified and integrated. Multiple app options are available for a smart phone and it is increasing day by day. When using an app, it sometimes asks for permission to access the phone book, SMS, call history and other such details. One does not know whether to give the app the permission and if given, how exactly the app is using that information? Is the app going beyond what is required to function effectively? If there is one integrated procedure by which such permissions are given for the apps it would make life simpler.  

10.   Customer care access gets easier. The multiple automated voice menus on calling customer care numbers leads the caller hopping from one menu option to the other. To top the labyrinth of the menus, the service provider sometimes will first play a long advertisement and then one gets to go inside the menu. Getting to a real live human voice is a long and patience testing option. 

I collate these 10 areas of expectations from a user perspective and that too in a situation when a human is using the services. In coming times when AI, M2M and IOT becomes more prevalent with forecasts suggesting  IOT/M2M devices set to cross the human users by many multitudes, the needs of an “end user” will see modification. Why so? Because the type of users will be much more. As technology, business and user landscape changes, this list will no doubt get updated to incorporate newer and varied needs.  Meantime, hope that the human consumer gets more choices, more transparency, better quality and better services.  I guess I am not asking too much.

Wishing you dear readers a happy new year.